Markets might expect a bit of a breather after the last few weeks of upheaval amid a new “geo-economic” era. But it’s a very busy calendar, with divergent central bank policies and ongoing US-Iran tensions while President Trump’s nomination for the new Fed Chair last Friday brought with it fresh bouts of volatility. That saw a rebound in the beleaguered dollar and historic, wild price action in gold and silver. Crucially, the oversold greenback held on to long-term lows and support, so it will be looking to Friday’s monthly US employment report to reinforce last week’s positive Fed comments about ‘signs of stabilisation’ in the labour market and bounce some more.

That could mean increased volatility in precious metals after violent selling late last week, where both gold and silver gave back huge monthly January gains. We have been writing in the Daily reports about the debt-fuelled, retail-heavy, FOMO driven flows which are always prone to a correction. Indeed, we wrote in the prior December market recap that silver’s history especially, is punctuated by periods of parabolic explosion and collapse. Certainly, a one-day move is not a trend, but it would be wise to be aware of the potential knock-on effects of this volatility, especially if stocks and the Nasdaq suffer more downside. The long equities, long metals and short USD trade has been very crowded and more ‘unwind’ days could accelerate index drawdowns. That said, the long-term drivers for gold and silver are still compelling.

Amid a packed week of S&P 500 company results which includes Disney, AMD and Eli Lilly, we get two more of the Mag 7 reporting earnings, with Alphabet and Amazon releasing after the US closing bells on Wednesday and Thursday. Market reactions to this season’s numbers have been skewed so far, with names priced for perfection like some AI leaders getting punished on any hint of slowing, while solid beats with credible AI monetisation –Meta, parts of Big Tech – are still being rewarded. Alphabet expectations are high, given it was the only Mag 7 stock apart from Nvidia to outperform the broader S&P 500 index last year and hit a $4 trillion market cap in mid-January. Capex, cloud numbers and AI investment will be the focus for GOOG, with AWS growth key for Amazon.

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Monday, 2 February 2026

-US ISM Manufacturing: January manufacturing activity is expected to tick up to 48.3 from 47.9, staying in sub-50 contractionary territory. New orders could signal soft underlying demand while input costs remain elevated due to tariffs and higher raw material prices. 

Tuesday, 3 February 2026

-RBA Meeting: There’s a 65% chance of a 25bps rate hike, which would take the cash rate to 3.85%. This comes on the back of persistently high inflation and a resilient labour market, that has strengthened the case for cautious policy tightening. Markets currently price in 50bps of hikes by August.

Wednesday, 4 February 2026

-Eurozone CPI: Consensus sees the headline easing one-tenth to 2.0% and core unchanged at 2.4%. Lower services and fuel prices could cause some disinflation. The ECB is expected to keep an eye on hotter-than-expected wage growth going forward.

-US ISM Services: January non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to move lower to 53.5 from 54.4. The index is in its tenth straight month of expansion above 50. But other surveys point to muted new business growth as tariffs cause increased costs for services in January.

Thursday, 5 February 2026

-Bank of England Meeting: No changes are expected with the Bank rate kept unchanged at 3.75%. Recent data has been mildly hawkish with stronger-than-expected GDP and PMIs. Wage growth is falling while inflation remains sticky. There’s currently a 20% chance of a March rate cut. Cable failed at the July top at 1.3784 with the bearish weekly candlestick price action pointing to more downside.

-ECB Meeting: Policy is in a ‘good place’ which means the ECB is fully expected to leave the deposit rate steady at 2%. Inflation is stable around 2% with growth better than forecast in Germany, Spain and Italy. Questions around the stronger euro will likely be swatted away with a neutral Lagarde answer. The bearish weekly EUR/USD pin bar candle warns of a major top in place, with a resistance zone around 1.19/20.

Friday, 6 February 2026

-US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus expects 70k jobs to be added, below the prior 50k. The 3-month average is 22k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Wage growth is seen steady at 0.3%. The Fed recently painted a more positive view of the labour market, though Chair Powell has previously stated that the BLS is overstating job growth by around 60,000 per month. The data is expected to confirm the “low-hire, low-fire” jobs picture.

-Canada Jobs: The headline figure is forecast to print modestly positive. The jobless rate is seen steady at 6.8%. The BoC appears comfortable with its current stance with little change forecasts through this year. USD/CAD bounced off the long-term low from June at 1.3540.