EURUSD is sitting near 1.1608 as of 01:29 UTC on 4 June 2026 (09:29 GMT+8), according to the Vantage EURUSD CFD. The pair has barely moved since the Asia-Pacific open, but the next seven days are loaded. US Non-Farm Payrolls land tomorrow (5 June), and the European Central Bank decides rates on 11 June with markets pricing a near-certain hike.

All price references are as of 01:29 UTC on 4 June 2026 (09:29 GMT+8). Charts are from the TradingView setup used for this analysis. This is not financial advice.

Key Points

• The Vantage EURUSD CFD was near 1.1608 as of 01:29 UTC on 4 June 2026 (09:29 GMT+8), having ranged between roughly 1.1595 and 1.1613 on the one-minute chart during the overnight session.
• May ADP private payrolls came in at 122,000, above the 117,000 forecast, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5%, its 23rd consecutive month of expansion. Both reinforce the Fed’s case to hold rates at its 16-17 June meeting.
• Markets continue to price a near-certain 25bp ECB hike on 11 June, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%. Diverging central bank paths, Fed on hold, ECB tightening, remain the dominant fundamental backdrop for the EURUSD rate today.

EURUSD Chart: What the One-Minute Setup Shows

The one-minute EURUSD chart on TradingView shows price drifting sideways near 1.1595–1.1600 in early Asian hours before a sharp volume spike near 23:00 UTC lifted the pair to around 1.1612. The move was brief: price retraced to 1.1602 within a few candles, then ground back up toward the 1.1608 area.

Price action remained range-bound following the initial spike, with momentum fading as volume normalised on the Vantage CFD feed. No clear trend has formed on the one-minute timeframe, the pair is consolidating ahead of a heavy macro week.

EURUSD Forecast Drivers: Fed Holds, ECB Hikes

US Data: ADP Beats, ISM Services Expands

The May ADP National Employment Report showed US private payrolls rose 122,000, above the 117,000 forecast and up from April’s downwardly revised 105,000.^[1] Annual pay growth for job-stayers held at 4.4%. ADP chief economist Dr Nela Richardson noted hiring was “more broad-based” than the firm had seen in recent years, with eight of ten super sectors adding jobs.

The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5% in May, its 23rd straight month of expansion, with new orders jumping to 57.3%.^[2] The Prices Index ticked to 71.3%, signaling persistent services-side inflation. Together, the two prints support the case for the Fed to hold at 3.50%-3.75% at the 16-17 June meeting, markets are pricing no move.^[3]

Wall Street consensus for Friday’s official NFP print stands at 80,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. That number will set the tone for the dollar into the ECB week.

ECB: A Near-Certain Hike on 11 June

While the Fed holds, the ECB is moving. Money markets continue to price a near-certain 25bp hike on 11 June, according to Trading Economics.^[4] Eurozone headline inflation ran at 3.0% in April (core: 2.2%, services: 3.5%), and a Reuters poll published 4 June found more than 60% of economists expected at least one further hike after June.^[5]

The evolving rate differential between the Fed and ECB remains one of the key structural drivers for EURUSD this week. A narrowing differential has provided a floor for the euro even as US data came in firm.

EURUSD Key Levels — 4 June 2026

Levels as of 01:29 UTC on 4 June 2026 (09:29 GMT+8). Reference only, not trade signals.

Table 1: Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics, Reuters. Indicative only.

The 1.1600 area acted as the overnight pivot for the EURUSD pair. The prior week’s broader range spans roughly 1.1530 on the downside to 1.1680-1.1750 on the upside. A sustained move beyond either boundary could draw more attention, though most traders watching the EURUSD chart are likely waiting on NFP and the ECB before making a larger call.

What to Watch

• US Non-Farm Payrolls, 5 June 2026: Consensus: 80,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.3%. A large miss or beat relative to that figure is the most immediate catalyst for EURUSD this week.
• ECB Rate Decision, 11 June 2026: A 25bp hike to 2.25% is near-certain in market pricing. The post-decision press conference — specifically any signal on the pace of further hikes, will carry more weight than the decision itself.
• Fed FOMC Meeting, 16-17 June 2026: Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair. No move priced, but fresh communication tone under new leadership is an unknown for dollar positioning.

Risk Management: Stop Loss and Leverage This Week

EURUSD is ranging tightly right now, but the next seven days carry three potential market-moving events. NFP prints, ECB decisions, and FOMC communications can all produce moves that extend well beyond a quiet overnight range.

A Stop Loss limits losses to a planned size, it does not eliminate them. Anchoring it to the 1.1600 pivot or the 1.1530 / 1.1680 range boundaries is more meaningful than a fixed pip distance in a week like this.

Leverage works both ways on CFD positions: it amplifies gains and losses equally. Revisiting position sizing relative to account equity before NFP day on 5 June is worth the extra few minutes.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 122,000 Jobs in May – ADP via PR Newswire” https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[2] “Services PMI at 54.5%; May 2026 ISM Services PMI Report – ISM via PR Newswire” https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-5-may-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302789082.html Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[3] “ADP jobs report May 2026: Payrolls increase by 122,000 – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[4] “Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate EUR/USD – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[5] “ECB June hike a done deal, another likely in September, economists say – Reuters via Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/ecb-june-hike-done-deal-095426217.html Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[6] “USD Forecast 2026: Dollar Outlook for the Next 6 Months – Cambridge Currencies” https://cambridgecurrencies.com/usd-forecast-2026/ Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[7] “Euro Forecast 2026: EUR/USD Outlook and June ECB Decision – Cambridge Currencies” https://cambridgecurrencies.com/euro-forecast/ Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[8] “Global Markets Weekly Update – T. Rowe Price” https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/global-markets-weekly-update.html Accessed on 4 June 2026.