Important Information

You are visiting the international Vantage Markets website, distinct from the website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP
( ) which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA").

This website is managed by Vantage Markets' international entities, and it's important to emphasise that they are not subject to regulation by the FCA in the UK. Therefore, you must understand that you will not have the FCA’s protection when investing through this website – for example:

  • You will not be guaranteed Negative Balance Protection
  • You will not be protected by FCA’s leverage restrictions
  • You will not have the right to settle disputes via the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS)
  • You will not be protected by Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS)
  • Any monies deposited will not be afforded the protection required under the FCA Client Assets Sourcebook. The level of protection for your funds will be determined by the regulations of the relevant local regulator.

If you would like to proceed and visit this website, you acknowledge and confirm the following:

  • 1.The website is owned by Vantage Markets' international entities and not by Vantage Global Prime LLP, which is regulated by the FCA.
  • 2.Vantage Global Limited, or any of the Vantage Markets international entities, are neither based in the UK nor licensed by the FCA.
  • 3.You are accessing the website at your own initiative and have not been solicited by Vantage Global Limited in any way.
  • 4.Investing through this website does not grant you the protections provided by the FCA.
  • 5.Should you choose to invest through this website or with any of the international Vantage Markets entities, you will be subject to the rules and regulations of the relevant international regulatory authorities, not the FCA.

Vantage wants to make it clear that we are duly licensed and authorised to offer the services and financial derivative products listed on our website. Individuals accessing this website and registering a trading account do so entirely of their own volition and without prior solicitation.

By confirming your decision to proceed with entering the website, you hereby affirm that this decision was solely initiated by you, and no solicitation has been made by any Vantage entity.

I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP, regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom

By providing your email and proceeding to create an account on this website, you acknowledge that you will be opening an account with Vantage Global Limited, regulated by the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission (VFSC), and not the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

    Please tick all to proceed

  • Please tick the checkbox to proceed
  • Please tick the checkbox to proceed
Proceed Please direct me to website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP, regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom.



Watch Reborn a Trader


View More
  • All
  • Search
  • Forex Trading
  • Vantage Rewards
  • Spreads
  • facebook
  • instagram
  • twitter
  • linkedin
  • youtube
  • spotify

Peak US interest rates in as markets eye cuts in early 2024

Vantage Updated Updated Tue, 2023 November 14 06:33


* Fall in US core CPI slashes odd of Fed rate hikes, rate cuts could come in March

* US shutdown risk drops as more Democrats back GOP Speaker’s plan

* US 10-year Treasury yield tumbles below 4.50%, USD plunges 1.5%, stocks surge

* GBP, EUR hit two-month highs versus the dollar, UK CPI in focus

FX: USD eventually slumped 1.5% after the softer than expected CPI data. All four main measures missed estimates to the downside by one tenth. (Headline y/y and m/m at 3.2% and 0%, core y/y and m/m at 4.0% and 0.2%.) Yields turned sharply lower dragging the dollar down with it. It was the biggest drops vs EUR and GBP since November 2022. The Fed’s policy tightening is seen as done. The issue is now about conveying an ‘on hold’ message. There is now currently a one in three chance of a 25bps rate cut in March and a coin toss in May. The 100-day SMA is at 104.15 and 200-day SMA at 103.60.

EUR rose sharply, gaining 1.82%. The late August highs are at 1.0939/45. The German ZEW survey expectations came in better than expected. Investors appear to be ore positive as inflation eases and the ECB rate cycle peaks.

GBP was the second best performing major currency. Firmer jobs data with payrolls rising and the jobless rate unchanged suggested a market that isn’t loosening. But wage growth did show mild signs of slowing though it is remains elevated.

USD/JPY backed off recent highs as the dollar got sold and Treasury yields plunged. This broke a six-day win streak and provides relief for Japan’s MoF. The 50-day SMA sits at 149.30.

AUD outperformed along with NZD as high beta currencies were bought up. The aussie closed just above the 100-day SMA at 0.6490. But below a major Fib level (38.2%) of July drop at 0.6510.

Stocks: US equities were propelled higher as bond yields fell. The benchmark S&P 500 added 1.91% to settle at 4495. This was its best day since April. The rebound from the late October low just over two weeks ago is 9.55%. The tech-laden Nasdaq finished 2.13% higher at 15,812. US tech stocks hit an all-time high with the “Magnificent Seven” adding more than $200bn to their market cap.  They are now roughly 29.15 of the total market cap of the index. The Dow settled 1.43% higher at 34,827. Real estate stocks soared with the sector jumping over 5%, its biggest one-day percentage move since last November. Tesla added over 6% on reports it may produce a cheaper EV in Germany. Nvidia rose to its first record close since August. It has now rallied nearly 22% in a 10-day win streak.

Asian futures are in the green with the Nikkei 225 set to rise above 33,000. APAC stocks traded mixed on Tuesday with gains capped as markets awaited the US CPI data.

Gold rebounded strongly off the 200-day SMA at $1935 and a fib level (38.2%) of the October rally at $1933. Bugs will eye $2000 now if Treasury yields move lower and the Fed’s tightening cycle is finished.

Day Ahead UK CPI, US Retail Sales, China Data

A busy day of data ahead. First up is the monthly China data dump with retail sales expected to be boosted by the first post-pandemic Golden Week. But the other main data, including fixed asset investments and industrial output are forecast to remain unchanged. The reports will be used to measure China’s ongoing subdued recovery. The latest inflation numbers and manufacturing PMI paint a fragile picture.

UK CPI is likely to fall sharply. The headline is predicted to slide to 4.9% from 6.7% due to base effects and the surge in utility prices from last year dropping out. The core is expected to decline to 5.8% from 6.1%. The all-important services inflation, a gauge the MPC follow closely, is seen ticking one-tenth higher to 6.9%, still lower than the MPC’s 7% forecast.

Finally, US retail sales will be followed to see how much impact higher rates are impacting the US consumer. Bank surveys suggest that household balance sheets are still relatively healthy. The restart of the repayment of student loans is ongoing.

Chart of the Day GBP/USD breaks higher

Yesterday’s wage data was still inconsistent with the Bank of England’s 2% target. But the trend is hopefully down from here and the same can be said of CPI. A print similar to the US report yesterday may slow the surge higher in cable. But markets reckon the Fed’s work is definitely now finished, while the BoE may still keep rates higher for longer as persistent price pressures remain evident. The 200-day SMA is at 1.2441. The 38.2% Fib level of the July drop sits at 1.2459. Above is the 100-day SMA at 1.2514 and the halfway mark of the July decline at 1.2589.