Important Information

You are visiting the international Vantage Markets website, distinct from the website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP
( ) which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA").

This website is managed by Vantage Markets' international entities, and it's important to emphasise that they are not subject to regulation by the FCA in the UK. Therefore, you must understand that you will not have the FCA’s protection when investing through this website – for example:

  • You will not be guaranteed Negative Balance Protection
  • You will not be protected by FCA’s leverage restrictions
  • You will not have the right to settle disputes via the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS)
  • You will not be protected by Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS)
  • Any monies deposited will not be afforded the protection required under the FCA Client Assets Sourcebook. The level of protection for your funds will be determined by the regulations of the relevant local regulator.

If you would like to proceed and visit this website, you acknowledge and confirm the following:

  • 1.The website is owned by Vantage Markets' international entities and not by Vantage Global Prime LLP, which is regulated by the FCA.
  • 2.Vantage Global Limited, or any of the Vantage Markets international entities, are neither based in the UK nor licensed by the FCA.
  • 3.You are accessing the website at your own initiative and have not been solicited by Vantage Global Limited in any way.
  • 4.Investing through this website does not grant you the protections provided by the FCA.
  • 5.Should you choose to invest through this website or with any of the international Vantage Markets entities, you will be subject to the rules and regulations of the relevant international regulatory authorities, not the FCA.

Vantage wants to make it clear that we are duly licensed and authorised to offer the services and financial derivative products listed on our website. Individuals accessing this website and registering a trading account do so entirely of their own volition and without prior solicitation.

By confirming your decision to proceed with entering the website, you hereby affirm that this decision was solely initiated by you, and no solicitation has been made by any Vantage entity.

I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP, regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom

By providing your email and proceeding to create an account on this website, you acknowledge that you will be opening an account with Vantage Global Limited, regulated by the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission (VFSC), and not the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

    Please tick all to proceed

  • Please tick the checkbox to proceed
  • Please tick the checkbox to proceed
Proceed Please direct me to website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP, regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom.


Are you long or short on indices?

Trade Indices Now >
Long Or Short On Indices?


View More
  • All
  • Search
  • Forex Trading
  • Vantage Rewards
  • Spreads
  • facebook
  • instagram
  • twitter
  • linkedin
  • youtube

Week Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls, RBA and BoC in the spotlight

Vantage Updated Updated Sun, 2023 December 3 10:41

December kicks off with some potentially heavy hitting reports, including the monthly US non-farm payrolls, ISM Services figures, China CPI and trade data, plus two major central bank meetings. Investors will be looking for the numbers to confirm that the disinflation and slowdown process is ongoing, as markets head into the last FOMC meeting of the year next week. It will be fascinating to see if Friday’s upside breakout in gold can be sustained, while US stocks look to be on the verge of another upleg too.

Expectations for rate cuts in the new year have ramped up recently, with over 100bps of policy easing currently priced in and close to a two in three chance of the first quarter-point cut in March. The October US jobs report was much softer than forecast so there may perhaps be a small recovery. However, the trend for weak job creation is in place which should slowly push up the unemployment rate while wage growth stabilises at a modest pace. The greenback has generally followed Treasury yields lower with the 200-day simple moving average capping the upside in the Dollar Index.

There is no chance that the RBA will increase rates at its meeting, following the much lower-than-anticipated October inflation figures. That said, this is only monthly data and so the bank will pay more attention to the quarterly numbers released at the end of January. Markets will be on the lookout for any hints that a final rate hike is still on the table through to March next year. Policymakers could be mindful that base effects in inflation could make it tough for prices to fall much further. The aussie enjoyed its third week of gains against the dollar and is looking to advance thorough resistance at 0.6591. This is a major Fibonacci level (61.8%) of the July to October decline.

The Bank of Canada will also keep rates unchanged with the peak in rates very likely in place after Governor Macklem said they might now be restrictive enough, even if it was not the time to be thinking about rate cuts. Data has generally been on the soft side since the last meeting and with weak growth expected to persist, any signals of an end to the tightening cycle should cause weakness in the CAD. The loonie has struggled along with the dollar in recent weeks with money markets pricing in over 100bps of BoC rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Major data releases of the week:

05 December 2023, Tuesday

-RBA Meeting: The RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35% after a 25bp hike last month. That was due to an upward revision to the inflation outlook, but October CPI printed below forecasts. The bank will remain alert to upside risks, and this should help support AUD.

-US ISM Services: The November non-manufacturing survey is forecast to tick higher to 52.5 from 51.8. The services sector had slowed for a second straight month in October to a five-month low. A reading above 50 indicates growth in services, which account for over two-thirds of the economy.

06 December 2023, Wednesday

-Australia Q3 GDP: Consensus forecasts a 0.4% reading in the third quarter which means annual growth slows to 1.8%. High inflation and interest rates are acting as a strong headwind with domestic demand growth likely cooling. 

-The Bank of Canada Meeting: The BoC is likely to keep rates on hold at 5% at this statement-only meeting. Economic challenges are intensifying while there is an ongoing dovish repricing of Fed rate expectations. That could mean a modestly softer hawkish tone from policymakers.

08 December 2023, Friday

US Non-Farm Payrolls: Analysts forecast a headline print of 200k, up from the prior 150k. That saw the 3-month average drop to 204k. The jobless rate is expected at 3.9% and average hourly earnings at 0.3%.