Dollar Index at 100: What Traders Are Watching This Week
Vantage Editorial Team >
Vantage Editorial Team >
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Updated Mon, 2026 June 8 03:43
The US dollar index (USDX/DXY) crossed 100.07 on 8 June 2026 at 09:50 (GMT+8), its highest reading since early April. One number drove the move: 172,000. That is how many jobs the US economy added in May, against a consensus forecast of 85,000.[1] The dollar’s recovery accelerated after the payrolls surprise. Rate-cut expectations were pushed further out and markets began assigning a modest probability to additional tightening. What happens next depends on three events stacked inside the next nine days: US CPI, the ECB decision, and Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair. Charts are from TradingView via the Vantage USDX CFD and are indicative only. This is not financial advice.
Key Points
- The USDX index rose 1.2% last week to a near two-month high after May’s nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, nearly double the 85,000 forecast, pushing markets to reprice the Fed rate path.[1]
- The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the April 29 FOMC in an 8–4 vote, the most divided committee since 1992. Kevin Warsh chairs his first meeting on 16–17 June, with a new dot plot on the table.[2][3]
- US CPI and the ECB rate decision on 11 June are the two releases that could move the dollar index most sharply before the FOMC verdict on 17 June.
What the US dollar index chart is telling you
The weekly USDX chart puts the current level in context. The dollar index peaked above 114 in September 2022, then trended broadly lower over the next three years. By February 2026 it had reached the mid-96 area. The MA50 on the weekly sits at 102.70, well overhead. The MA200 at 98.37 acted as support through the recovery, and the index has since pushed above it.
The daily USDX chart is where the recent move is sharpest. After the February 2026 low, the dollar index tracked sideways before breaking higher on the May NFP release on 6 June. The MA50 (98.44) and MA200 (98.76) on the daily had converged almost exactly before the index crossed both in a single session. The RSI on the TradingView setup used for this analysis reads 66.85 on the daily frame: elevated, but not yet at overbought extremes.
Three things moving the dollar index right now
1. The May jobs report
May’s nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000 against a forecast of 85,000.[1] March and April figures were revised up by a combined 93,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. The dollar index rallied 0.66% on the day, closing at its strongest since early April.
The reaction in rates markets was immediate. Charles Schwab’s post-NFP analysis noted that chances of a Fed rate hike before year-end moved off zero for the first time in months, driven partly by the four hawkish dissents already on record from the April FOMC meeting.[4] On Sunday, President Trump told NBC’s Meet the Press there is “no reason” to raise interest rates, adding a political backdrop to what Warsh will face on 16 June.[5]
2. The Warsh debut
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate in a 54–45 vote on 13 May 2026, the closest Fed chair confirmation in modern history, and was sworn in on 22 May.[3] His first FOMC meeting runs 16–17 June, with a fresh dot plot and updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the first under his leadership.
What Warsh signals about inflation discipline matters for the dollar index. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the April 29 meeting in an 8–4 vote, with April CPI at 3.8% year on year.[9] CME FedWatch data as of 31 May showed a near-certain probability of a hold at the June meeting. After the May NFP print, hike odds ticked up modestly, though a hold remains the base case.[2]
3. The ECB and what it does to EURUSD
Markets broadly expect the ECB to tighten policy on 11 June, with interest rate futures pricing a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 2.25% as of 8 June 2026, according to CNBC.[8] Eurozone inflation hit 3.2% in May, its highest in over two and a half years, while eurozone GDP contracted in Q1 2026 for the first time since late 2022.[6] An ECB hike narrows the rate differential with the Fed, and since the euro carries the heaviest weighting in the dollar index, its direction feeds directly into the USDX chart.
The Euro pulled back toward 1.16 ahead of the decision, from a high near 1.19 in March.[6] Persistent uncertainty in the Middle East keeps oil elevated and energy-driven inflation in focus, which adds a layer of safe-haven demand for the dollar on top of the rate story.
Key levels on the US dollar index and pairs
Reference levels as of 09:50 (GMT+8), 8 June 2026. Not trade signals.
| Pair | Support | Resistance | Context |
| USDX (DXY) | 98.37 (MA200) | 100.50 / 102.00 | Testing the 100 handle; MA50 at 102.70 acts as overhead resistance |
| EURUSD | 1.1480 / 1.1600 | 1.1800 / 1.1900 | Pulled back toward 1.16 ahead of the ECB rate decision on 11 June |
| USDJPY | 155.00 / 156.00 | 160.00 | Rose to near 160 on strong NFP; 160.00 is a psychological resistance and intervention-sensitive zone; BoJ action has previously been triggered near this level |
| GBPUSD | 1.2700 / 1.2850 | 1.3100 | BoE holds at 3.75%; next decision 19 June alongside updated projections |
| USDCAD | 1.3600 | 1.3900 / 1.4000 | Oil price moves and trade policy developments continuing to shape direction |
Table 1: Key levels as of 09:50 (GMT+8), 8 June 2026. Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics. Indicative only.
US dollar index marketwatch: five events, nine days
Here is what each one means for the USDX and dollar pairs.
- US CPI, 11 June: April came in at 3.8%. A hotter May reading reinforces the case for a hold or hike and likely keeps the dollar index supported above 100. A softer number reopens cut speculation and puts pressure on the 100 handle.
- ECB rate decision, 11 June: A 25-basis-point hike is near-fully priced. What moves markets is Lagarde’s tone at the press conference: whether July is live or whether this is a one-and-done move. Either way, the euro’s reaction feeds directly into the dollar index chart.
- US PPI, 12 June: Paired with CPI, it gives the broadest read on price pressures heading into 16 June. Two consecutive hot prints would put hike pricing firmly back on the table.
- FOMC rate decision, 16–17 June: A hold is the base case. Traders are watching the dot plot and the SEP, specifically whether the median dot shifts toward a hike in 2026 and how many dissents appear under Warsh’s first chairmanship.
- BoE rate decision, 19 June: The Bank of England held at 3.75% on 30 April. The June decision and updated projections could shift GBPUSD meaningfully, which carries indirect weight for the dollar index through the pound’s basket weighting.
Risk management considerations
Stop Loss placement matters more than usual right now. The USDX has been reacting sharply to data releases and headlines all year, with intraday ranges expanding around major events. The MA200 near 98.37 and the 100 handle itself are the structural levels where Stop Loss logic concentrates; a clean break of either changes the picture for the dollar index chart. Traders holding correlated positions across USD pairs should check combined exposure before CPI and the FOMC. When multiple instruments gap in the same direction at once, position sizes that seemed reasonable in isolation can add up fast.
Leverage cuts both ways in this kind of headline-driven range. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth reviewing ahead of a week this heavy with event risk.[7]
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.
Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
References
[1] “US Dollar Hits Near Two-Month High as Strong Jobs Data Boost Rate Hike Expectations – EconoTimes” http://www.econotimes.com/US-Dollar-Hits-Near-Two-Month-High-as-Strong-Jobs-Data-and-Middle-East-Tensions-Boost-Rate-Hike-Expectations-1743661 Accessed on 8 June 2026.
[2] “CME FedWatch Tool — 30-Day Fed Funds Rate Probabilities – CME Group” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Accessed on 8 June 2026.
[3] “Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh to Lead Fed as Trump Tests Its Autonomy – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/senate-confirms-warsh-to-lead-fed-as-trump-tests-its-autonomy Accessed on 8 June 2026.
[4] “Fed Interest Rates: FOMC Cuts Rates – Charles Schwab” https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting Accessed on 8 June 2026.
[5] “Trump says Fed rate increase would be wrong ahead of Warsh debut – Fortune” https://fortune.com/2026/06/07/trump-fed-rate-increase-kevin-warsh-fomc-meeting-debut/ Accessed on 8 June 2026.
[6] “Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 8 June 2026.
[7] “Week ahead: Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/week-ahead-fed-countdown-begins-amid-us-inflation-data-and-geopolitical-risks-202606050907 Accessed on 8 June 2026.
[8] “The ECB is in a bind over rate hikes — market expectations of 25bp hike on 11 June – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/the-ecb-is-debating-rate-hikes-but-the-private-sector-could-help-out.html Accessed on 8 June 2026.
[9] “CPI Inflation April 2026: Prices Rose 3.8% Annually – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html Accessed on 8 June 2026.
