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[DAILY TRADING] NKE Analysis 2 July 2026 – Nike Stock Price Jumps to $43 as China Sales Sink 12%

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Vantage is a global, multi-asset broker with a team of in-house writers and market analysts who produce educational and insightful trading content for traders of all levels.

Vantage Updated Thu, 2026 July 2 07:22

Here’s the Nike stock price today: Nike, Inc. (NKE) shares traded at $43.13 as of 14:30 (GMT+8) on 2 July 2026, up 1.20% on the Vantage NKE CFD feed, twelve cents below the session high of $43.28. The move followed Nike’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release, which shifted investor focus toward early signs of operational stabilisation despite continued revenue headwinds.

Released after the close on 30 June 2026, the report beat consensus on revenue and adjusted earnings, though the headline figure leaned heavily on a one-time tariff refund. Prices below are as of 14:30 (GMT+8) on 2 July 2026 unless noted.

Charts are from TradingView. This is not financial advice. Discover all share CFDs you can trade at Vantage Markets here.

Key Points

  • NKE stock has reclaimed both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, putting the price of Nike shares back between $41.83 and $41.91 after the earnings-driven rebound.
  • Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue fell 1% on a reported basis to $11.0 billion, above Wall Street’s roughly $10.85 billion estimate,[1] while reported earnings per share of $0.72 included a $0.52-per-share tariff benefit.[2]
  • Greater China revenue fell 12% on a reported basis even as North America rose 3%,[1] and management indicated profitability should stay broadly stable through the first half of fiscal 2027 even as revenue remains under pressure.[2]

What the chart is showing

On the 15-minute chart used for this analysis, the Nike share price opened the 2 July 2026 session at $42.63, reached a high of $43.28, and traded as low as $42.60 before last changing hands at $43.13, according to the Vantage NKE CFD feed. Session volume stood at 820.77K.

The 50-day moving average sits at $41.83 and the 200-day at $41.91, a gap of just eight cents. Price spent most of late June below that cluster before a single outsized session, visible on the chart as a sharp volume spike, pushed NKE back above both lines as Nike’s earnings landed.

The RSI (14) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis read 70.30, above its moving-average overlay of 55.54, putting NKE in overbought territory and reflecting the pace of the recent advance rather than a standalone signal.

Nike stock price chart as of July 2, 2026
Figure 1: NKE 15-Minute Chart (TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-NKE/) Accessed on 2 July 2026. Data indicative, for informational purposes only.

Behind the move: the earnings beat and the tariff refund

Behind the move: the Nike's earnings beat and the tariff refund

The headline earnings beat was largely attributable to the one-off tariff refund, although several operating metrics also came in ahead of cautious expectations, including the revenue beat and firmer North America trends.[1] Excluding the one-time tariff benefit, EPS would have been approximately $0.20 per share, still ahead of the roughly $0.13 adjusted consensus,[2] while gross margin rose 890 basis points to 49.2%, roughly 900 points of which came from the same tariff recovery.[1]

Greater China revenue fell 12% on a reported basis to $1.3 billion, and 17% on a currency-neutral basis, as local competition and softer demand continued to weigh on the region.[1] North America grew 3% to $4.8 billion.[1]

Management indicated profitability should remain broadly stable during the first half of fiscal 2027 while revenue is expected to stay under pressure, with gross margin turning slightly positive again in the first quarter.[2] Chief executive Elliott Hill said the year’s structural changes had laid the groundwork for long-term growth, while acknowledging the business still faces top-line headwinds.[1]

Wall Street’s response was mixed. JPMorgan’s Matthew Boss kept a Neutral rating and a $47 price target, and Bank of America’s Lorraine Hutchinson held Neutral after trimming her target to the same level.[3] Shares initially fell sharply in after-hours trading before recovering, and the rebound extended into 1 July 2026, when NKE added as much as 3.68% intraday, per Investing.com.[4]

Levels traders are watching

The table below sets out today’s Nike stock quote levels for NKE, for reference rather than as signals to act on.

InstrumentSupportResistanceWhat’s happening
NKE$41.83-$41.91 (50-day/200-day MA cluster); $40.00 (52-week low)$43.28 (2 July session high); $45.50 (mid-June swing high)Price has reclaimed both moving averages after the earnings-driven rebound; RSI sits near overbought territory.

Table 1: Key levels as of 14:30 (GMT+8) on 2 July 2026. Sources: Vantage NKE CFD feed, TradingView. Indicative only.

The moving average cluster near $41.83 to $41.91 is the most immediate support, followed by the 52-week low of $40.00.[4] Today’s session high of $43.28 is the first resistance, with the pre-selloff swing high near $45.50 further above. RSI at 70.30 suggests momentum has become stretched following the earnings-driven rally.

What to watch this week

  • Guidance Follow-Through, Ongoing: Additional management commentary on the first-half fiscal 2027 profitability outlook could reset how the market prices the turnaround.
  • Greater China Trend, Ongoing: Further data on China sell-through will show whether the 12% reported decline is stabilising or deepening.
  • Analyst Revisions, Ongoing: More price target changes from sell-side desks are likely in the coming days.

Nike shares have moved a considerable distance in a short window, and RSI in overbought territory following the earnings-driven rally suggests momentum has become stretched. The moving-average cluster around $41.83 to $41.91 may serve as an important technical support zone if post-earnings volatility persists, a factor some traders weigh alongside Stop Loss and overall exposure planning.

Leverage works both ways when trading NKE CFDs, and it can magnify a loss as easily as a gain. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting given the size of the recent move, particularly with further guidance commentary and sector-wide retail data still to come this quarter.

Vantage Glory 2026

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “NIKE, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2026 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results – SEC EDGAR” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000076/q4fy26exhibit991er.htm Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[2] “Nike results top estimates even as China sales drop 12%; retailer expects $986 million tariff refund – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/30/nike-nke-q4-2026-earnings.html Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[3] “Nike Rallies On Results, But Wall Street Expects Long Turnaround – Benzinga” https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/26/07/60222641/nike-rallies-wall-street-turnaround Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[4] “Nike Stock Price Today | NYSE: NKE Live – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/equities/nike Accessed on 2 July 2026.